Tuesday, 17 March 2015

Where did it all go wrong?

Sitting here on a Tuesday night after watching another midweek football betting day go absolutely tits up. If I compare where I am today to where I was at the middle of January the majority of people wouldn't believe me - but I am sitting on the cusp of breaking my own betting bank.

I started the season with a £10k betting bank across all systems - fully expecting some to do well and some do not so well. I didn't envisage so many not doing well. Not one football system is in profit in 2015!

I have failed miserably to keep this blog up to date but have persevered with sticking the bets on where possible despite a much busier working life at the moment. I am going to see it out, would be easy to chuck it in and take the loss and move on - but I still believe in the systems and the tipsters so I need to see this year out at least and hope that I can recover it to a positive point.

A quick table to summarise just how badly things have gone up to week ending the 15/03/15 :-

To some a £3,495 loss may not look too bad (it is now actually -£4768 after today's horror show) - it is more the way it has happened. Thats an 8k swing in less than two months - frightening. Add on the fees and subscriptions and I only have £4,020 of my original bank left!

Breaking it down into more detail I have had to take some decisive action - Football is my highest staked and supposed lowest risk part of the portfolio. However I was taking on 8point multi system bets with The Football Analyst slightly above minimum odds - it took a post from November 2014 by Tage (@secwal) to really think about what I was doing, So I have made some changes and spreading the risks - ignoring the non-value high multi system bets. However since making this change I am sitting at -£2,685! Typically the high multi system bets have done quite well in that period as well! Not exactly having the desired effect I was looking for. I am going to stick with it though as the logic makes sense. I have completely dropped betting on any draw systems. Football Investor is likewise having a nightmare - from a high of 20pts to a low now of -9pts following the combo and top flight euro systems. This was always due though given how well it went in the first half of the season.

The other big blotch is the golf betting - I upped stakes (I shouldn;t have) and the winners have completely dried up for Golf Punters Guide. A couple of near misses for Berger and Moore and it would be a positive story - but thats golf and that is why I need to stick at it. Two winners in quick succession or a winner for Henrik Stenson this weekend could change things again!

On the postive side Cheltenham went really well - but handing it back to the bookies via bets on the Vanarama Conference really did hurt! The horse racing stuff is looking good - formbet is back and is looking better than ever, formjudge is looking exceptional and I know Northern Monkey Punter will bounce back in the summer months.

I need to share my pain so others in the same position don't feel quite as bad - I am going to try and go back to weekly updates to summarise where I am. I am sure some will enjoy me staring into the abyss!!

Last year March was my worst month (-£7,031) - that would see the end of me! That was down to overstaking at Cheltenham however and I resolved that this year!

Good luck with your own betting! Hopefully I can record my first winning week since week ending the 15th February!


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