Tuesday, 31 March 2015

Crewe little beauty!

Week 13 of the year down and finally I can report a profitable week betting thanks to a fantastic Saturday on the football and the horse racing.

Total Staked = £3,394
Profit/Loss = £1,463
ROI% = 43%

Firstly it is great to return to winning ways - you can see from the table - I have only had 4 of them from 13 weeks this season and thankfully it put an end to a losing streak since the week ending the 15th February. It was actually a quiet week overall and was the lowest staked week of the year so far - this was down to a few reasons - International Football/Football Investor illness/Quiet week on the golf and my updated TFA staking.

The Racing ended up in loss for the week - £1,964 staked for a loss of £164. Starting with Equine, only one winner from 11 - but it was a nice winner at 10/1 with Jacobs cat. So a small profit on the week of £80. John Mac continued a difficult run with 4 losses from 4 - he will come good. Northern Monkey had a number of ante-post bets on the Lincoln, none of which won. It has been a tough start to the year for NMP and this continued this week -  2 winners from 22 - total loss of the week = £613. Hopefully things pick up soon for NMP when the flat really gets going! The Analyst is also struggling at the moment and I am borderline ready to dump him as there is real inconsistency when he sends bets out - some days we hear nothing at all! 5 bets all loser = loss of £200. Saving the best to last - the ratings are back are as the winners for Formbet - a great winner with Chatez on Saturday at odds of 23 on Betfair. He also hit Royal Bajan at Chelmsford - I was on a 10.5 but he went off at 16 on betfair. Total profit for Formbet last week was £899 after commission.

Even the golf looked better last week! Jason Kelly hitting a great winner with Jimmy Walker at 22/1! Amazingly he didn't implode on Sunday - I thought for a minute Mr Speith was going to ruin things again! £572 profit for Jason Kelly for the week and back to roughly break even for the year. Nic came close to nailing a winner in Morocco - Horsey let him down again on a Sunday but Lundberg finished in the top 20 at fantastic odds of 21 - small stakes but a profit of £41 on the week. Sadly for Golf Punters the dismal year continued - £110 loss on the week. Unfortunately I am now sitting at  loss of £2000 on the year for GPG and yesterday he has announced the closure of his service. Always annoying when this happens especially with golf where one winner really can change things - hopefully he can get a winner in his final 2 events of the season - I wish Sam all the best with future ventures. I expect I will double up Nic stakes to compensate for this as I have been really impressed with his selections thus far. Lastly Finn didn't come close - the hurricane on Thursday left most of his players without a hope! A loss of 75 for the week.

Lastly the football - due to the Internationals it was a quiet week - thankfully! TFA hit some lovely form and thankfully an injury time went my way as Crewe pulled off an amazing victory at 10.0! I had 2 points staked so netted a £900 profit from that bet! Elsewhere there was other great wins for Gillingham, Bradford, Rochdale and Altrincham for a profit of £907! Football Investor had only one bet due to abandonment and Coventry duly returned a nice profit of £294!

Glad to top up the banks somewhat after a brutal period - will try and post a summary of March by tipster and share my future thoughts! I still stand by my current portfolio but sadly golf punters guide will becoming to an end and TFA is also considering the future after this season - typically just when I get to a staking plan I am comfortable with!

Good luck for the week ahead!

Sunday, 22 March 2015

It is bordering on the ridiculous now....

Horrible - about the only word that can sum things up.

Another shocker of a week - £5,800 staked for a loss of £1,392. Doesn't tell half the story though....

Start with the Racing, profitable to the tune of almost 10% ROI. A quiet week in comparison to the week before at Cheltenham. I only staked £753 across the 7 days with a return of £88 . The notable winners were Silver Mountain for Equine at 4/1 and Kalane for John Mac at 10/1. Equine and John Mac finished the week in profit. Norther Monkey only had one bet this week - but sent some further antepost our for races later this month and next. The Analyst had one winner from 5 for a disappoint return and Formbet drew a blank yesterday despite the ratings having a great week.

Next up the usual horror show - the football....Firstly no Football Investor this week - Stew is unwell and hopefully gets well soon! I staked  £4052 on The Football Analyst over 2 sets of fixtures for a loss of £947. Most of which came with a horrific midweek. I posted on Twitter yesterday how thin the margins are. 3 injury time goals cost me £1200 swing yesterday afternoon. Just can't get m head round it.....Football Elite had a tough weekend, £550 staked for a loss of £259, Sampdoria and Evian the only two from 11 that got a result.

Lastly the most pain was caused in the last half hour - Henrisk Stenson, tipped up by Finn McKenna, Golf Punters Guide and Nic's Picks lost by a shot. He traded as low as 1.15 when I saw it (maybe lower) - I think I am going to need to get smarter and start to trade these picks. That is two weeks in a row now where things have been looking great going into the back 9 of the golf and boom - profit is gone. Stenson victory would have got me about £1500 back and turn a losing week into a strong profit week. Add to that I had some good place chances going in to Sunday and they all fell away as well! Hard to recover from and again got me thinking - what is the point of putting myself through this rollercoaster!

Should me some midweek TFA action and I can but hope it turns a profit. That -£3,926 figure needs resolved and quickly. The flat season starts on Saturday and I can't wait - the summer months saw me recover last year and I need more of the same again. Who knows what the golf will serve up next week.

Bank still sits at £10,000 - hopefully I am still here to provide an update next week!

Tuesday, 17 March 2015

Where did it all go wrong?

Sitting here on a Tuesday night after watching another midweek football betting day go absolutely tits up. If I compare where I am today to where I was at the middle of January the majority of people wouldn't believe me - but I am sitting on the cusp of breaking my own betting bank.

I started the season with a £10k betting bank across all systems - fully expecting some to do well and some do not so well. I didn't envisage so many not doing well. Not one football system is in profit in 2015!

I have failed miserably to keep this blog up to date but have persevered with sticking the bets on where possible despite a much busier working life at the moment. I am going to see it out, would be easy to chuck it in and take the loss and move on - but I still believe in the systems and the tipsters so I need to see this year out at least and hope that I can recover it to a positive point.

A quick table to summarise just how badly things have gone up to week ending the 15/03/15 :-

To some a £3,495 loss may not look too bad (it is now actually -£4768 after today's horror show) - it is more the way it has happened. Thats an 8k swing in less than two months - frightening. Add on the fees and subscriptions and I only have £4,020 of my original bank left!

Breaking it down into more detail I have had to take some decisive action - Football is my highest staked and supposed lowest risk part of the portfolio. However I was taking on 8point multi system bets with The Football Analyst slightly above minimum odds - it took a post from November 2014 by Tage (@secwal) to really think about what I was doing, So I have made some changes and spreading the risks - ignoring the non-value high multi system bets. However since making this change I am sitting at -£2,685! Typically the high multi system bets have done quite well in that period as well! Not exactly having the desired effect I was looking for. I am going to stick with it though as the logic makes sense. I have completely dropped betting on any draw systems. Football Investor is likewise having a nightmare - from a high of 20pts to a low now of -9pts following the combo and top flight euro systems. This was always due though given how well it went in the first half of the season.

The other big blotch is the golf betting - I upped stakes (I shouldn;t have) and the winners have completely dried up for Golf Punters Guide. A couple of near misses for Berger and Moore and it would be a positive story - but thats golf and that is why I need to stick at it. Two winners in quick succession or a winner for Henrik Stenson this weekend could change things again!

On the postive side Cheltenham went really well - but handing it back to the bookies via bets on the Vanarama Conference really did hurt! The horse racing stuff is looking good - formbet is back and is looking better than ever, formjudge is looking exceptional and I know Northern Monkey Punter will bounce back in the summer months.

I need to share my pain so others in the same position don't feel quite as bad - I am going to try and go back to weekly updates to summarise where I am. I am sure some will enjoy me staring into the abyss!!

Last year March was my worst month (-£7,031) - that would see the end of me! That was down to overstaking at Cheltenham however and I resolved that this year!

Good luck with your own betting! Hopefully I can record my first winning week since week ending the 15th February!