Tuesday 31 March 2015

Crewe little beauty!

Week 13 of the year down and finally I can report a profitable week betting thanks to a fantastic Saturday on the football and the horse racing.

Total Staked = £3,394
Profit/Loss = £1,463
ROI% = 43%

Firstly it is great to return to winning ways - you can see from the table - I have only had 4 of them from 13 weeks this season and thankfully it put an end to a losing streak since the week ending the 15th February. It was actually a quiet week overall and was the lowest staked week of the year so far - this was down to a few reasons - International Football/Football Investor illness/Quiet week on the golf and my updated TFA staking.

The Racing ended up in loss for the week - £1,964 staked for a loss of £164. Starting with Equine, only one winner from 11 - but it was a nice winner at 10/1 with Jacobs cat. So a small profit on the week of £80. John Mac continued a difficult run with 4 losses from 4 - he will come good. Northern Monkey had a number of ante-post bets on the Lincoln, none of which won. It has been a tough start to the year for NMP and this continued this week -  2 winners from 22 - total loss of the week = £613. Hopefully things pick up soon for NMP when the flat really gets going! The Analyst is also struggling at the moment and I am borderline ready to dump him as there is real inconsistency when he sends bets out - some days we hear nothing at all! 5 bets all loser = loss of £200. Saving the best to last - the ratings are back are as the winners for Formbet - a great winner with Chatez on Saturday at odds of 23 on Betfair. He also hit Royal Bajan at Chelmsford - I was on a 10.5 but he went off at 16 on betfair. Total profit for Formbet last week was £899 after commission.

Even the golf looked better last week! Jason Kelly hitting a great winner with Jimmy Walker at 22/1! Amazingly he didn't implode on Sunday - I thought for a minute Mr Speith was going to ruin things again! £572 profit for Jason Kelly for the week and back to roughly break even for the year. Nic came close to nailing a winner in Morocco - Horsey let him down again on a Sunday but Lundberg finished in the top 20 at fantastic odds of 21 - small stakes but a profit of £41 on the week. Sadly for Golf Punters the dismal year continued - £110 loss on the week. Unfortunately I am now sitting at  loss of £2000 on the year for GPG and yesterday he has announced the closure of his service. Always annoying when this happens especially with golf where one winner really can change things - hopefully he can get a winner in his final 2 events of the season - I wish Sam all the best with future ventures. I expect I will double up Nic stakes to compensate for this as I have been really impressed with his selections thus far. Lastly Finn didn't come close - the hurricane on Thursday left most of his players without a hope! A loss of 75 for the week.

Lastly the football - due to the Internationals it was a quiet week - thankfully! TFA hit some lovely form and thankfully an injury time went my way as Crewe pulled off an amazing victory at 10.0! I had 2 points staked so netted a £900 profit from that bet! Elsewhere there was other great wins for Gillingham, Bradford, Rochdale and Altrincham for a profit of £907! Football Investor had only one bet due to abandonment and Coventry duly returned a nice profit of £294!

Glad to top up the banks somewhat after a brutal period - will try and post a summary of March by tipster and share my future thoughts! I still stand by my current portfolio but sadly golf punters guide will becoming to an end and TFA is also considering the future after this season - typically just when I get to a staking plan I am comfortable with!

Good luck for the week ahead!

Sunday 22 March 2015

It is bordering on the ridiculous now....

Horrible - about the only word that can sum things up.

Another shocker of a week - £5,800 staked for a loss of £1,392. Doesn't tell half the story though....

Start with the Racing, profitable to the tune of almost 10% ROI. A quiet week in comparison to the week before at Cheltenham. I only staked £753 across the 7 days with a return of £88 . The notable winners were Silver Mountain for Equine at 4/1 and Kalane for John Mac at 10/1. Equine and John Mac finished the week in profit. Norther Monkey only had one bet this week - but sent some further antepost our for races later this month and next. The Analyst had one winner from 5 for a disappoint return and Formbet drew a blank yesterday despite the ratings having a great week.

Next up the usual horror show - the football....Firstly no Football Investor this week - Stew is unwell and hopefully gets well soon! I staked  £4052 on The Football Analyst over 2 sets of fixtures for a loss of £947. Most of which came with a horrific midweek. I posted on Twitter yesterday how thin the margins are. 3 injury time goals cost me £1200 swing yesterday afternoon. Just can't get m head round it.....Football Elite had a tough weekend, £550 staked for a loss of £259, Sampdoria and Evian the only two from 11 that got a result.

Lastly the most pain was caused in the last half hour - Henrisk Stenson, tipped up by Finn McKenna, Golf Punters Guide and Nic's Picks lost by a shot. He traded as low as 1.15 when I saw it (maybe lower) - I think I am going to need to get smarter and start to trade these picks. That is two weeks in a row now where things have been looking great going into the back 9 of the golf and boom - profit is gone. Stenson victory would have got me about £1500 back and turn a losing week into a strong profit week. Add to that I had some good place chances going in to Sunday and they all fell away as well! Hard to recover from and again got me thinking - what is the point of putting myself through this rollercoaster!

Should me some midweek TFA action and I can but hope it turns a profit. That -£3,926 figure needs resolved and quickly. The flat season starts on Saturday and I can't wait - the summer months saw me recover last year and I need more of the same again. Who knows what the golf will serve up next week.

Bank still sits at £10,000 - hopefully I am still here to provide an update next week!

Tuesday 17 March 2015

Where did it all go wrong?

Sitting here on a Tuesday night after watching another midweek football betting day go absolutely tits up. If I compare where I am today to where I was at the middle of January the majority of people wouldn't believe me - but I am sitting on the cusp of breaking my own betting bank.

I started the season with a £10k betting bank across all systems - fully expecting some to do well and some do not so well. I didn't envisage so many not doing well. Not one football system is in profit in 2015!

I have failed miserably to keep this blog up to date but have persevered with sticking the bets on where possible despite a much busier working life at the moment. I am going to see it out, would be easy to chuck it in and take the loss and move on - but I still believe in the systems and the tipsters so I need to see this year out at least and hope that I can recover it to a positive point.

A quick table to summarise just how badly things have gone up to week ending the 15/03/15 :-

To some a £3,495 loss may not look too bad (it is now actually -£4768 after today's horror show) - it is more the way it has happened. Thats an 8k swing in less than two months - frightening. Add on the fees and subscriptions and I only have £4,020 of my original bank left!

Breaking it down into more detail I have had to take some decisive action - Football is my highest staked and supposed lowest risk part of the portfolio. However I was taking on 8point multi system bets with The Football Analyst slightly above minimum odds - it took a post from November 2014 by Tage (@secwal) to really think about what I was doing, So I have made some changes and spreading the risks - ignoring the non-value high multi system bets. However since making this change I am sitting at -£2,685! Typically the high multi system bets have done quite well in that period as well! Not exactly having the desired effect I was looking for. I am going to stick with it though as the logic makes sense. I have completely dropped betting on any draw systems. Football Investor is likewise having a nightmare - from a high of 20pts to a low now of -9pts following the combo and top flight euro systems. This was always due though given how well it went in the first half of the season.

The other big blotch is the golf betting - I upped stakes (I shouldn;t have) and the winners have completely dried up for Golf Punters Guide. A couple of near misses for Berger and Moore and it would be a positive story - but thats golf and that is why I need to stick at it. Two winners in quick succession or a winner for Henrik Stenson this weekend could change things again!

On the postive side Cheltenham went really well - but handing it back to the bookies via bets on the Vanarama Conference really did hurt! The horse racing stuff is looking good - formbet is back and is looking better than ever, formjudge is looking exceptional and I know Northern Monkey Punter will bounce back in the summer months.

I need to share my pain so others in the same position don't feel quite as bad - I am going to try and go back to weekly updates to summarise where I am. I am sure some will enjoy me staring into the abyss!!

Last year March was my worst month (-£7,031) - that would see the end of me! That was down to overstaking at Cheltenham however and I resolved that this year!

Good luck with your own betting! Hopefully I can record my first winning week since week ending the 15th February!

Saturday 14 February 2015

Talk about falling behind!

Sadly work and family life got the better of me and my daily updates turned to weekly to non existant. I am going to try and continue to do updates as it is helpful for keeping me sane in this ever painful world of trying to make profit.

Tomorrow I will do a proper summary of the weeks - but the results over the last few weeks are as follows :-

Week Ending 25th January

Weekly Staked = £4,284
Weekly P/L = -£199
ROI% = -5%

Weekly Horse Racing Staked = £1,260

Weekly Horse Racing P/L = £316

Weekly Football Staked = £4,775
Weekly Football P/L = £151

Golf Staked = £830
Golf P/L = -£667

Week Ending 01st Feb

Weekly Staked = £5,918
Weekly P/L = -£903
ROI% = -15%

Weekly Horse Racing Staked = £1,358

Weekly Horse Racing P/L = £815

Weekly Football Staked = £4,110
Weekly Football P/L = -£1,660

Golf Staked = £450
Golf P/L = -£58

Week Ending 08th Feb

Weekly Staked = £5,532
Weekly P/L = -£1,019
ROI% = -18%

Weekly Horse Racing Staked = £1,428

Weekly Horse Racing P/L = -£46

Weekly Football Staked = £3,640
Weekly Football P/L = -£586

Golf Staked = £464
Golf P/L = -£386

As you can see - a really difficult few weeks - hard to remember what a profitable week was like and in fact I would need to go back to the week ending the 11th January. Luck shouldn't come into it but if I take last weekend for example I had an approx £1,200 swing due to Man Utd and Stoke equalizing in the last minute - bloody brutal. That can be a hard one to swallow - thankfully the horse racing has picked up and I have been especially impressed with the Equine Investments selections this year - i was fully intending to dump them after this cycle - but not sure I can afford to! The golf has been a struggle as well - interestingly though there has been players in contention every PGA tournament going into the final round - unfortunately they havent managed to get over the line - Palmer, Watney and Matsuyama to name a few. So again I expect an up turn there at some point - golf betting is a patient mans game and hopefully that means a winner is round the corner soon.

Back tomorrow with a proper weekly update and will provide a tipster breakdown to see where the money has been won and lost!

Sunday 25 January 2015

Rollercoaster of a week!

Things have been hectic with the day job - then a nice family holiday to round off the week. Thankfully I am managing to get any bets on - my cut down portfolio this year is making things a lot easier (that and the weather making horse racing very non appealing to tipsters!). It has been a pretty break even week so far - but I am hoping the golf goes in my favour tonight. A Ryan Palmer win with a Justin Thomas top 10 would be fine and would put me in a great position as I approach the final few days of the month. Quick summary on the days past and will follow up with a fuller weekly review following the golf tomorrow.

Horse Racing

3 bets - 3 losers for the Horse. NMP had Lexington Rose and Sherriff of Newton - both finished behind others. The Analyst had Somchine which also failed to do the business.

Daily Horse Racing P/L = -£103


The weekend of golf betting was compounded by a miserable end to the Sony Open. Jason Kellys picks Johnson and Streb were never really in it. Golf Punters Guide was unlucky with big outsider Justin Thomas finishing one place out the place money. Nick had a slightly better time as Sabbatini came from way back to secure the Top 10 bet. Really nice to see different markets getting used. He has 3 argubaly in contention for the Top 10 again this weekend. All in all a disaster - but Golf betting is like that and one big winner changes to complexion of everything.

Daily Golf P/L =  -£329

Overall Daily P/L = -£431 - Rough start to the week!

TuesdayHorse Racing

Only one bet on a an extremely quiet Tuesday - thankfully a nice winner at odds of 6.5 for Equine - With Hindsight aptly named to do the business.

Daily Horse Racing P/L = +£220


One outside pick and Notts County picked up an admirable draw - sadly I was on the win at 5.25 - so the bet goes down as a loser!

Daily Football P/L =  -£80

Overall Daily P/L = £140

WednesdayHorse Racing

A busy day compared to yesterday. Equine had 1 selection in the 335 Lingfield - Pearl Ransom narrowly missing out at odds of 6.5 (-£45). Tipster A had 2 bets (Stopped out Carlisle 240) and Lukes Benefit (Ascot 250) - again both were sadly losers (-£70). Northern Monkey Punter then reminded me of just how good he is as he hit a winner with Francos Secret in the 335@Lingfield. Evening Attire was a loser in his other selection. (+£50). The real plaudits for the day go to The Analyst - 3 selections and 2 winners, Mr Bossy Boots scored at 2.5 and Cango scored at 4.5, Millionaires Row was a loser - great turnover from him (+£160). Form Judge had 1/2 with Anglophile scoring very very easily in the 300@Ling but Blue Aegan lost later at Kempton (+£40)

Daily Horse Racing P/L = +£135


Sticking to the value helped me here as I couldn't get near the Ipswich odds - they went on to lose comfortably. I was only on the draw - so finished £40 down instead of £160....

Daily Football P/L =  -£40


Nics Picks through up one FRL selection with Richard Green in Qatar - failed to do much on Day 1 so a small loser.

Daily Golf P/L =  -£5

Overall Daily P/L = £90

ThursdayHorse Racing

Equine came up a loser with Ontaris Joy in the 510@Chelmsford (-£40), Tipster A nailed a nice winner with the Tourade Man in the 250@Warwick (+£180). Sadly Northern Monkey Punter couldnt follow up yesterdays winner and lost with Diamond Lady at Chelmsford (-£38). The Analyst continued his good run as he picked up a winner with Keep Kicking in the 740@Chelmsford. My first winner at the Track! He had two losers with Alright Benny and Shinooki - but profit on the day! (+£40). Lastly Formjudge had a bet in Ireland with Jadlani failing to do much at big odds in the 315@Gowran Park (-£30)

Interestingly Northern Monkey Punter has his mojo back and is increasing stakes again - will be interesting to see how it pans out!
Daily Horse Racing P/L = +£113


Sticking to the value helped me here as I couldn't get near the Ipswich odds - they went on to lose comfortably. I was only on the draw - so finished £40 down instead of £160....

Daily Football P/L =  -£40

Overall Daily P/L = £90

FridayHorse Racing

A quiet Friday overall - Equine had one loser with Navajo Dream at nice odds at Wolves - finished 2nd (just!) (-£40). Northern Monkey Punter had two in the 310@Ling - neither were in it (-£75). It was up to the Analyst to save the day again with Present LOdger winning at odds of 3.75 (+£110)

Daily Horse Racing P/L -£5


One football bet - one winner. Can it always be this simple - Football Elite put up Nice to beat Marseille - nice odds for me (3.64) and it duly won!

The dreaded Saturday to come....

Daily Football P/L =  +£132

Overall Daily P/L = £127

SaturdayHorse Racing

First up Equine - 2 selections, 1 winner. Persepolis lost out but Ivors Rebel won the 345@Lingfield for a nice return on the day (+£95). Tipster A put up Renard in the Skybet Chase - I am a bit miffed as it finished 4th but with William Hill I was only on the first 3 places. Must read the small print....He also had Special Wells in the first at Doncaster that failed to feature (-£100) Norther Monkey had a busier day and only managed 1 winner from 4. Gabrials Wawa winning at 3.75 - the other selections Gwoen, Silverheels and Kodiac Lady were beaten home. (-£19). Formjudge had one selection he was very keen on - unfortunately the owners went and Easter Day was chosen to run at Cheltenham instead! It actually fell at Cheltenham. A loser for me. (-£20)

Daily Horse Racing P/L -£24


Football was quieter than normal thanks to the FA cup and what a day it was in the FA Cup. Match of the Day was fascinating viewing this morning! Football Investor had a losing day - Lazio won but Port Vale, Lille and Vallecano all lost (-£206). The Football Analyst continued his great start to the year. Big winners were Crewe (4.33) and Inverness (2.6) - because of my value threshold I didn't have the full stake matched on Thistle - disappointed they didn't win after taking a lead after 3 mins. I hate to think how much money Thistle have cost me in recent years. (+£357). Football Elite only had one bet on Saturday - Bastia which lost (-£51)

Daily Football P/L =  +£101


Sadly Nics Pics couldn't follow up their great week last week at qatar - Broberg and Green failing to make the Top 10. Jason Kelly also had a loser with Andrew Johnston after an encouraging start. I actually missed his other bet Anthony Wall as I didnt realise the tournament started on Wednesday - thankfully it wasnt an expensive error!

Daily Golf P/L =  -£35

Overall Daily P/L = £23

Yearly Staked = £20,410

Yearly P/L excluding subs = £3,495
Yearly ROI% excluding subs = 17%

After a poor start to the week it has ended well. Already today Evian have won for both Football Elite and Football Investor so I am hoping it can be a profitable day for the football betting. In the golf a Ryan Palmer win would net me about a grand - so I am hoping he can repeat his -11 round for the other day - ridiculously he was out in 27! Nics Pics also has Justin Thomas - albeit at smaller stakes as I find my feet with the service, Fingers crossed I don't wake up to a disappointing leader board.